Monday, February 1, 2010

Bouncy Bouncy

Nice bounce today though it was on really low volume. We are in no man's land now. The bounce I was looking for last week may be instead occurring this week. The Volcker testimony which I had so much hope for to change our financial system towards something sustainable is apparently all smoke and mirrors (at least that is the Wall St. rumor now). So Wall St. is ignoring his testimony tomorrow, at least for now.

I don't really think 1130 is in the cards anymore but would not be surprised to see 1100 to 1115 still. Last Friday the market bears got geeked up on the supposed break of resistance. It may be premature. Financials held in there very strong on Friday and the Wilshire 5000, one of the most comprehensive of the indexes, did not break its July trendline and did not break the S&P equivalent of 1180 (1134 if your a Wilshire tracker). It bounced on resistance about perfectly. So a very natural market bounce that probably has some legs in it. A good thing for me is that I sold some early in the week last week but never shorted. Still have alot of dry powder that I will use in that 1100 to 1110 area making a bet that we are indeed done making new highs for the year.

On the fundamental front the ISM index was smoking. Really have to be impressed with the manufacturing space. We shall see if that continues. The jobs number this week has a potential to be positive because of the census hiring. Another smoke and mirrors number especially considering the jobless claims have been trending higher. That also has the potential to mark the end of this rally. Buy the rumor sell the news type of thing. We shall see.

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