Wednesday, February 10, 2010

Calm Before the Storm??

Very boring day compared to yesterday. It is the calm before the storm. Now whether that storm causes markets to go higher or lower I think is becoming less clear. The longer this drags out the more unclear it gets. It is becoming more and more bifurcated which I don't like. I still say I would be a more nervous bull than bear. A positive development sends the market to 1080 to maybe 1100. A negative development sends the market to 1,000 or 950.

Still, the market seems to be on pins and needles waiting for the final outcome.

Just speculation but what happens if negative developments come out of the meeting in Brussels tomorrow and we get a bad jobless claims number? OUCH. The meeting in Brussels is not going to be easy. Read When Genius Failed: The Rise and Fall of Long Term Capital Management to get a sense of how hard a bail out can be to orchestrate among multiple players. Now throw in different countries, cultures, tax payers, political careers etc. etc. and you see the problem.

I still think the odds for a negative development and huge move down is high.

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