Monday, January 14, 2008

Crazy Bullish Scenario

Not advocating this, not saying it is going to happen, not saying I think will happen. Just a thought.

Bernanke last week sounded as gloomy as I have ever heard him and made it clear that they would be cutting interest rates. Rumors are flying that there will be an early meeting (nothing new) and the market is now saying it is a toss up whether it will be a 50 bip cut or 75 bip cut. WOW. Anyway, tomorrow and Wednesday are huge inflation number days. What if the inflation numbers come at or below expectation (wouldn't be surprised to see continued behind the scenes massaging by the government) followed by a rate cut of 50 bips Thursday or Friday by the Fed (an early meeting) pointing to the weak inflation numbers saying they could do it. The DOW would be up at least 500 to 700 points by next Monday.

Like I said, just a thought.

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