Thursday, January 24, 2008

Was the FED Duped - This could be big

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120115814649013033.html (currently this article does not require a subscription)

Massive fraud by a rogue trader at Societe Generale SA has led to a €4.9 billion ($7.16 billion) write-down and is roiling markets as far away as Asia and further shaking investor confidence in Europe's biggest banks.

Though Societe Generale says it first learned of what it termed "massive fraudulent directional positions" on Jan. 19, it waited until it could close out those trades before going public with the problem. Winding down the trades, the bank said, resulted in a €4.9 billion write-down, making it potentially the largest loss ever from an alleged rogue trader.

So maybe the global sell off had nothing to do with market panic or economic woes or coming doomsday but instead, unwinding massive positions because of fraud at a bank. Why is this so big. It could mean the FED was duped into cutting rates. It could validate what everyone has been saying that the FED is the markets punching bag. The FED said they cut rates because of tightening lending standards at regional banks. Lets hope they were seeing something else other than just responding to the world sell off. That would be a misstep of magnificent proportions. Today the jobless claims number came out. It was very strong. So the market is expecting a 50 bip rate cut next week. So you have a very good job reports number, revelation that the FED made have blinked as a result of fraud..... Can the FED really lower interest rates 1.25% in less than 2 weeks? HMMMMMM

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