Wednesday, January 23, 2008

Let the Good Times Roll

So I woke up this morning and do what I always do. Reach over for my blackberry and check the futures before I do anything else. I think I let out an audible groan as it looked like the market was going to open down again another 100 points or so. That feeling of nausea caught my attention. I figured compared to most investors I have weathered this downturn better than most and am still very well positioned going forward with quite a bit of cash and here I am groaning at another drubbing in the markets. Two more thoughts flooded my mind. What are most investors thinking who are not nearly as well positioned as I am? Also is that not an irrational thought? I mean as the market goes down this increases the future returns of stock. Companies, great companies, are getting even cheaper to buy so if you have any cash at all you should be looking forward (not groaning) at the prospect of a better buying opportunity. I realized how my thoughts were not matching rational thought (a very severe problem for investors). Anyway, I started trying to change my thinking pattern and decided LET THE GOOD TIMES ROLL.

On another note SRS (the inverse of IYR the REIT index) has performed exceptionally weak the last couple of days (meaning REITs have performed exceptionally strong). I took 1/3 of my exposure off the table yesterday and it is down 2% today when the market is down 2% also. I don't think the commercial REIT downturn story is over and I will probably add back my 1/3 position at some point. Worth watching.

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