Wednesday, March 5, 2008

Are We Entering a 1968 era?

Found this very interesting (Thanks Andrew). Not sure I agree with their end conclusion. New prospective / idea for me so I am going to have to mull over it.

http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/u_s_economy_and_next_big_one

Starts out defining 3 eras since the Great Depression.

The United States has had three economic eras since World War II. The first was the period from about 1948 until about 1968. It was marked by tremendous economic growth and social transformations, rising standards of living and cheap money. Then, there was the period between 1968 and about 1982. This period was marked by intensifying economic problems, including much slower growth, increasing commodity prices, high interest rates and surplus labor. The third period, which began in 1982, saw extremely high growth rates, rapid technological change, increasingly cheap money and low commodity prices. The first era lasted 20 years. The second lasted 14 years. The third has lasted 26 years. None of these eras moved in a straight line; each had cycles.

Then asks a very important question.

The important question is this. Have we really been in a single era since 1948, with the 1968-1982 period representing merely a breathing space in a long-term, multigenerational expansion? Or are we in a period of alternating eras, in which expansionary periods alternate with periods of relative dysfunction and economic stagnation?

The rest of document talks about the various eras and where we are at. Like I said, not sure I agree with the conclusion though not sure I disagree either.

One other very interesting thing that jumped out on me. I have never heard it put like this before when discussing taxes. Basically low taxes destroy moats as it increases entrepreneurism and competition. Many of you are probably like, duh Jason. Probably obvious, just never thought of it that way.

Low marginal tax rates weaken the hand of existing wealth and strengthen the possibility of creating new wealth.

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