Sunday, March 23, 2008

Bottom Callers......EVERYWHERE!!

Need a subscription
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB120587382060546217.html?mod=b_hps_9_0001_b_online_exclusives_weekend

AFTER WATCHING THE TALKING HEADS ON FINANCIAL TELEVISION, we would all be crazy not to take buckets of cash down to the local brokerage office and buy everything with a ticker. Rarely have I watched so many professionals proclaim unequivocally that the bottom is in.

Bulls are all of a sudden everywhere. This really reminds me of last August. Cover story of Barrons is titled Hitting Bottom arguing financials are done going down. (Of course last week their cover story last week was a bearish article on Fannie and Freddie and this week theyboth were up over 30 to 40% last week.)

Yes, after being down on financial stocks for more than a year, we find ourselves unable to resist some real springtime optimism

though at the end of the article they did give a paragraph for the bearish argument.

"Equity guys are completely clueless as to how bad it is in the credit markets. They're as bad as they've been since the Great Depression." Banks and brokers, who have written off almost $200 billion in assets, will need to raise hundreds of billions in new equity so that they can make loans available.

All of this reminds me of last August. That was after the lows the markets went on to rally to new highs into mid October before coming crashing down. Barring any major news I think we are headed higher for the foreseeable future even if fundamentally I think we should be headed lower. I will probably be taking defensive action with my shorts.

If you didn't see this on Friday you may want to watch Whitney Tilson on the Housing Crises on ironically Fast Money. Seeing the utter look of confusion and lack of understanding by the fast money traders typifies the well bought belief that the market and financials have bottomed. Besides the fundamental aspects this is extremely strong evidence that I think we haven't bottomed for good.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=690737287&play=1

Who knows, I take on and off protection (hedges) based on what I think the market will do in the short term. I keep my positions anchored based on what I think fundamentally. Either way I will continue to hoard cash. Are we at the bottom? Maybe, I still don't think so but I am one opinion among millions.

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