Thursday, June 26, 2008


Dollar = down
Financials = down
Commodities, specifically oil = way up

As I thought the end of trading yesterday showed, nothing has changed.


Aggie Capitalist said...

Currency strength or weakness has no correlation to the stock market. If a weak dollar is bad for the US market and a strong Euro good for European markets, we would see a divergence between their stock market's performance...that hasn't happened...

Market Seer said...

Well 99% of the time I would agree with that statement; however, do not be naive that it is not a trading driver right now. You can argue which one is the dog and which one is the tail but currency is at least somewhat related to oil price increases. Most day traders I know (of which I am obviously not one) have the financial index, the dollar index, and the oil index all up right next to what they are trading. After the Fed annoucement yesterday the dollar weakened. That was a tell tell sign for many traders not to get long stocks.

Huge disuptions in the currency market roil stock marekts. The 1987 crash was at least partly caused by the huge currency dislocation over the previous couple of months and especially the previous couple of weeks.

Like I said 99% of the time I would agree with you but there are no absolutely rules in markets. Right now, at least in my opinion, currencies matter.