Friday, June 20, 2008

The Volatility Came

What a day. You knew today was going to be volatile but no idea which direction. As stated yesterday my guess was up but instead it was down (that is why I don't bet on short term things, you never know). I also said it would not mean anything either way unless it was a massive move down. We were right on the cusp of what I would consider a massive move down. In general I think it was down enough and enough technical damage done that I think it was significant. 1320 on the S&P was important and we closed below it. There were so many cross currents going on that it is hard to judge. Iran, oil, automakers, capitulation call by Merrill, quadruple whitching day, etc. Trading seemed just chaotic. This down move was also on massive volume. I have not seen volume like this in months. Over 1.9 billion shares on the NYSE. While 6 months ago that number would not have been that impressive we have not cleared 1.5 in I don't know how long.

As a bear I am getting nervous that a decent bounce may be just around the corner. I think more likely though is we could rebound a couple of percentage points before truly breaking the lows of March.

Market currently is definitely not for the weak of heart. It is going to be very interesting how we open on Monday and how we react.

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