Monday, June 30, 2008

Quick Update

Hello all. I am back from a long weekend traveling for a wedding and will be swamped in a very short week before heading out for the 4th of July on Thursday. I am also working on my quarterly letter for my fund so will probably not be posting much this week.

A couple of quick little tidbits that really don't mean much but I have some cash I have been wanting to put to work the last week so I have put on my trader hat. Today we avoided what I thought could have been a really ugly day. As a result, tomorrow starts a new quarter which brings the potential of money flowing into the markets and specifically losers since Wall Street won't have to report that they are holding these securities for awhile. We are also way oversold (though we have been for awhile). So despite the VIX not rallying I think we could be in for a modest couple of week 3 to 5% bounce (financials bounce could be violent). I don't think we have seen a major market bottom without the VIX rallying but a choppy to small rally working off the oversold nature of the market is very possible. Like I said I have put on my trader hat as there is money I want to invest in a couple of names and I was concerned about a large possible crash like move down. I was a buyer today and assuming the market appears to be stable in the morning I will be a buyer tomorrow morning. With new money moving in tomorrow if the market is not able to rally I would consider that very bearish in the near term. In summary I think the short term probability of an irrational move down has decreased dramatically and willing to focus on the fundamentals of individual names.

Like I said, nothing important or earth shattering but thought I would share my thoughts.

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