Saturday, August 9, 2008
I am out again this week. Ugh I know!! I am ready just to be back and get in a normal week by week schedule. I spent some time watching some CNBC videos and reading some commentary. It seems alot of people are buying this bottom caused by weakening commodities and strengthening dollar hook line and sinker. I am more confident then I have been that we will be moving up for a little while. The one good thing is financials have not been following the S&P to new highs but we probably have at least 2 to 4 weeks of this bear market rally ahead of us. The last rally in April and March lasted 14% from top to bottom. We are are a little over 8% now. It also lasted right at two months. We are just finishing up our first. All this stuff really does not matter but when timing new entry points it can make a difference. What matters is fundamentals and on all levels this seems to be weakening. Friday in the midst of another massive rally in the equity markets the CMBS (essentially tracks commercial mortgages) widened again. Most of the debt market is showing stress not seen since before the Bear Stearns collapse. These are the fundamentals that will ultimately matter even if the equity market can go several more weeks in rally mode. Have a great week. I will be back a week from Sunday.