Tuesday, August 5, 2008


Market got it's giddy up on today. Why the Fed decision meant anything today I have no idea but the market obviously wanted an excuse to go up. Things I was watching very closely today was if the S&P 500 broke through 1285 (it didn't) and XLF broke though 22.50 (it didn't). If these hold again tomorrow that puts off a stronger move to the upside. If they don't hold then I think you should assume more bullishness. Looks like this may very well be another prolonged 6 week rally potentially up to 1325 ish or a little more. Time will tell. CSCO had good numbers (or less bad numbers than feared) but I think the market will be driven by the perception of FNM and FRE numbers tomorrow morning and Friday morning. Also ABK and MBIA report tomorrow and Thursday.

Oil fall is also helping the market which I called (am I making any money off of it, ha, no). The stupid thing is that the fall is most probably demand destruction which shows very weekly on the economy. 6 months ago you saw headlines like Market Follows Oil Rise as Global Growth Story Still in Play now oil is falling and it is supposed to be very bullish. Plus it is only back to levels from mid May.

Anyway the best I can tell we have erased all the oversold conditions from several weeks ago but not really overbought yet. We have been in a choppy range and tried to break that range to the upside today. If successful probably means hello 1300 on the S&P.

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