The next two days (and it may be just Monday) will tell you more information about where the market is likely to go in the short term than any previous days in a long time. Last week the economic data was awful except for consumer confidence which in my opinion is the most unimportant data point of the week. New home sales, existing home sales, home prices were all below the hope level especially when you take into account downward revisions from the previous month. Durable good order had a good headline number but that was also massively boost by the previous downward revision. Taken together it was horrid. The worst number of the week may have actually came on Friday and that was the Chicago PMI which was well below the previous number and well well below consensus which had expected a number of 51 (came around 44). As mentioned last week in the blog ignoring all of this was sort of explainable going into the end of the month and funds still chasing the indexes. What threw the unbelievable kink into everything was the last 10 minutes on Friday.
This week is an important pivotal week. You have jobs data that should push national unemployment above 9%. You also will have auto sales, personal income, personal spending, ism numbers, and pending home sales. Basically next week is laced with explosives. What throws a kink into all this is it may not matter. The new month should show an easing of buying pressure after the funds chased it last week but my personal opinion is if we don't gap down at the open (like S&P open below 913) the momentum guys will be the new buying pressure after breaking major technical resistance in the last 10 minutes on Friday, and it will be another week where the numbers just won't matter. News will be bought instead of what is in the news to determine if it is bought or sold. If the momentum guys really get behind this, we will be at 950 before you know it.
Either way, I am not expecting Monday to be light volume day. It could be laced with dynamite.