Monday, May 11, 2009

Dying Gardens

So maybe the garden of those pretty little green shoots is already dying. In April the early buzz was China export decline was slowing. Well not so again this month. I had to do a google search but I found my data.

Xinhua reports from a month ago:

China's exports fell for the fifth month in a row to 90.29 billion U.S. dollars in March, down 17.1 percent from a year earlier, the General Administration of Customs said Friday.

Imports slumped 25.1 percent year on year last month to 71.73 billion U.S. dollars, compared with a 24.1-percent decline in February.

In February the decline was 25.7% So there was a nice little increase in March from the big decline in February.

Well according to Bloomberg the decline is picking back up.

China’s export slump worsened in April, making it harder for the government to revive the world’s third-biggest economy.

Overseas sales declined 22.6 percent from a year earlier, the official Xinhua News Agency said. Imports fell 23 percent.

Ouch. And the garden of green that is out there:

“The export outlook remains highly uncertain and downbeat,” said Tao Dong, chief Asia economist at Credit Suisse in Hong Kong.

and this was really interesting:

China’s biggest trade fair, in the southern city of Guangzhou, said this month that the value of export orders at the event fell 16.9 percent to $26.23 billion from six months earlier.

Six months earlier was November. Crises was already in full blown mode. So from six months ago orders fell 16.9%???

Ouch. So maybe we have started our corrective rally with numbers like these. 900 is a good bogey. If we get below that stay below that, the momentum guys will start selling.

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