Europe and Great Britain continue to shock me at their overall resilience. The Pound shows continued strength against the dollar and the European markets also continue to show strength. A couple of interesting article. This one from The Guardian talking about the OECD uping their world economic forecast for 2010 (we will see if that optimism comes to past).
But the OECD had less good news for the UK, revising down its growth estimate this year to -4.3%, the biggest one-year fall in output since 1945 and lower than Alistair Darling's budget forecast of a 3.5% decline. Previously, the OECD had pencilled in a 3.7% contraction for Britain this year.
The OECD's Economic Outlook said the UK was in a "severe recession" and could expect only a mild recovery during the course of 2010, when it believes output will be unchanged.
Britain's budget deficit, the OECD warned, would hit 14% of GDP next year - the biggest of any of the OECD's 30 member countries. "To improve stability, the government should continue to develop a concrete and comprehensive plan to ensure that debt is on a declining path once recovery takes hold", the outlook said.
Then this article from Bloomberg. Finally, a government bureaucrat who actually has an honest assessment.
“There has to be a risk that it will be a long, hard slog” because of the problems in the banking system, King told lawmakers in London today. “I feel more uncertain now than ever. This is not the pattern of a recession coming into recovery that we’ve seen since the 1930s. Having an open mind and not pretending to foresee the future when it’s so uncertain is important.”