Monday, June 8, 2009

Future Buyers Only

So another day and it is getting so easy to recognize when the big buyer steps into the future market and what the end result will be. The cash market had its slowest day yet. Only 1,077,228,000 shares traded on the NYSE today. Normal volume since like January has been about 1.7 billion and normal for the month of May may have been around 1.4 billion ish. There is no trading interest in the market. As more and more market participants realize they don't want to buy because stocks have run so much without much economic improvement but they also don't want to sell because someone somewhere is stepping in through the futures market to drive the market higher, the actual market is becoming a ghost town. I know that applies to me. I have barely traded in the fund at all for weeks. I refuse to short against this invisible buyer but I don't want to buy anything either because it seems all smoke and mirrors and valuations have surged. Friday to me still looks like a short term top and the market action acted like it today also until the big futures buyer stepped in at 2:20. There is little or no buying interest. There hasn't been for weeks. This game can't last forever. Until it comes to end though, I will continue to play spectator.

There was one difference today compared to the normal rocket ship in the futures. Higher beta stuff like the Russell 2000 ETF IWM did not participate. This may or may not be significant. Shows fewer traders were willing to jump in other areas of the market when the S&P 500 futures were getting pushed higher.

4 comments:

The Duke said...

Any spec as to who is behind this?

Market Seer said...

Well it is for sure JP Morgan. The question is who is behind JP Morgan. Is it some major client that is on a steady rebalance schedule? Is it some government entity that is manipulating the markets so certain companies can get recapitalized? Is it a major fund that is trying to pump and dump? Answering that is speculation.

Below is another good recap of the spike at the end of the day.

http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/06/intraday-spy-indication-of-interest.html

Jon said...

Can the fed buy futures? I thought there were some restrictions on what they can own. Gold, Tres, crappy mbs's, crappy clos........

Market Seer said...

probably not the Fed. Read the post I just did above.