Thursday, June 11, 2009

China's Exports Decline Accelerating

Another great data point that should be rushed and bought by all. I am sure the spin guys are working overtime. These are the numbers that I see as important. Anything that points to demand, not production. China exports which feeds a large portion of the world their desire for things is a good barometer. U.S. May retail sales number looked decent today up .5% from April though it was down 10.8% yoy but if you dig into the number more of the same thing. Increase because of gasoline prices, auto parts, food, and health. Anything discretionary was down from April, electronic, furniture, department stores, etc.

From Bloomberg:

China’s exports fell by a record as the global recession cut demand for goods produced by the world’s third-largest economy.

Overseas sales dropped 26.4 percent in May from a year earlier, the customs bureau said in a statement on its Web site today. That compares with the median estimate for a decline of 23 percent in a Bloomberg News survey of 15 economists, and a 22.6 percent contraction in April.

More protectionism?

The government said this month that a quick rebound in trade is becoming less likely and unveiled higher export rebates on some steel products, electronics, machinery and toys, the seventh increase since August.

And I don't see how this is possible since imports (raw materials for China's exports) has been a leading indicator for exports.

Still, China’s export orders index advanced to 50.1 in May, marking the first expansion in 11 months, a government-backed manufacturing index showed. Japan’s exports and production rose in April from the previous month, and orders placed at U.S. factories gained for the second time in three months.

China’s imports dropped 25.2 percent last month, compared with the 22 percent decline estimated by economists and a 23 percent fall in April. The trade surplus was $13.4 billion in May, smaller than the $14.9 billion estimated by economists in the Bloomberg survey.

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