Monday, June 1, 2009

Screaming Market

My thought that if we didn't gap down at the open we would be at 950 before you knew it didn't take long to play out. High was like 947.77 in the S&P 500 which is close enough for government work. Didn't think it would happen all in one day but that is what it is. We have been screaming for a day and 15 minutes so I wouldn't be surprised to see a pullback potentially back to the 200 day moving average but assuming nothing major hits I think the market is heading higher. The idea or hope for any 10% pullback has probably been pushed off for awhile. It is really amazing when you think about it. In the last two weeks you have had North Korea test nuclear missiles, threaten South Korea, economic news that is still only less bad (PMI on Friday was just bad), the first DOW component in the history of the index declare bankruptcy, the 10 yield go parabolic, the dollar plummet etc. etc. and the market is able to launch a major breakout to the upside.

The fact that the treasury market is becoming just as volatile if not more volatile than the equity markets should be concerning. Today was also weird with the huge spike in volume early on and nothing else going on all day with volume drying up until once again in the last two minutes. Also the internals were strong but not what you would have expected on a major break out like this. Financials also really didn't participate.

Either way, I think the market has decided which way it is breaking and we may get some pauses and moves lower but the market seems like it will want to move higher in the next few weeks.

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